WHO I WANT TO WIN
Let's start with who I want to win. Again, if you know me personally, this should be pretty obvious.
1. South Carolina Gamecocks (14 AP - 12 USA - 15 ESPN)*
My favorite team ever, the Gamecocks are currently ranked 14th in the AP Top 25 poll (will be referred to as AP from now on), 12th the the USA Today Coaches poll (will be referred to as USA from now on), and 15th in the ESPN Power Rankings (will be referred to as ESPN from now on). The Gamecocks have only lost one game so far, but pretty much every game has been a scare for them. I think their high ranking is mainly due to their recent success the past few years. The past three years, the Gamecocks have had rough starts to their season, but have finished extremely strong fashion. I think this year will be no different, and I see the Gamecocks getting a good bowl bid, hopefully winning, and finishing the year ranked in between 7th and 12th. I just hope they can pull it together before they lose some easy games. Obviously with those rankings I don't foresee them winning it all.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (N/A AP - 24 USA - N/A ESPN)
I am a Husker fan by marriage. I sure am glad I married into a family with a team that has so much rich history / tradition (and not a team like William & Mary). I have been to a few Husker games and they are awesome. In the early 70s and the mid to late 90s, the Huskers were the Alabama of today, winning back to back championships in 1970 and 71, then three in a four year span in 1994, 95, and 97. As of late though, Nebraska hasn't quite lived up to the lore of old. With the exception of 2001, where Nebraska lost the National Championship game to Florida State, the Huskers have not even threatened for the title since their last championship in 1997, sixteen years ago. Nebraska started the season ranked poorly (18 AP - 18 USA - 20 ESPN) due to mediocre (for them, good for most other teams) seasons and bowl losses the past three years. After barely winning their season opener to an inferior team, and getting blown out a few weeks later, Nebraska has dropped out of most national rankings. Besides those two games, Nebraska has had pretty convincing wins, racking up points like someone is chasing them into the endzone with a whip. I think it's about time that they get ranked again. In recent years, Nebraska has shown that they have a hard time finishing the season strong. They have only won two out of their last six bowl appearances, and none in their past three appearances. Due to this and a lack of schedule strength, I see Nebraska finishing the season ranked in between 19th and 24th.
WHO EVERYONE THINKS WILL WIN
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (1 AP - 1 USA - 1 ESPN)
Alabama has won three out of the last four titles, and could be on route for a fourth this year. The only year they didn't win in recent history was when Cam Newton led their arch rival, the Auburn Tigers, to a BCS Championship win against Oregon in 2010. It seems Bama has all the tools in place this year for a threepeat. The Crimson Tide have had only one close game this year, a 49-42 win against 6th ranked Texas A&M, and that game was only close because Bama's defense laid down at the end (Bama gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter, equaling what had been given up the whole game up until that point). The only currently ranked opponent Alabama has left in the regular season is 10th ranked LSU.
2. Oregon Ducks (2 AP - 2 USA - 2 ESPN)
Oregon has hovered near the top the past few years, but has failed to get the job done when it counts. In 2010 they had a shot at the National Championship, but Cam Newton and the Auburn Tigers sent the Ducks waddling back to Oregon with their feathers between their legs. In 2011, Oregon started the season highly ranked but lost their first game to #4 LSU. After climbing all the way back close to the top and beating a #4 ranked Stanford, Oregon lost the following week to an unranked USC Trojans team. Last year, after starting the season 10-0, the #2 Ducks lost in overtime to the #13 Stanford Cardinal. Oregon is currently 3rd in the nation in rushing yards, 2nd in the nation in points scored, and 2nd in the nation in points against. However, they haven't played any ranked teams yet, and they do have a tough road ahead before the season ends, playing a strong #16 Washington team on the road this Saturday. The Ducks also have to face off against #11 UCLA and go on the road again to play #5 Stanford before the end of the regular season. Even if the Ducks beat both UCLA and Stanford, there is a good chance they will have to play one of them again in the PAC-12 Championship game.
3. Ohio State (4 AP - 3 USA - 5 ESPN)
Urban Meyer has not lost a game yet as Ohio State's head coach. The Ohio State Buckeyes are 18-0 in their last eighteen games, and due to an extremely weak schedule don't seem to be slowing down anytime soon. Although the Buckeyes have barely squeaked out alive against the only two ranked opponents they have played so far this year (#23 Wisconson, #16 Northwestern) they have continued to win. The only ranked opponent Ohio State has left is #18 Michigan, who earlier this year had to have a miracle go their way simply to beat an Akron Zips team that has won one game each of the past three seasons. The Buckeye's other formidable (not) opponents left on the schedule are teams like Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. (Why can't any midwestern states that start with i play football?) Last year, despite going 12-0, Ohio State did not play in the BCS National Championship, or any bowl game for that matter, due to a team suspension. This year the suspension has been lifted, but even if the Buckeyes go undefeated they may not make the big dance (can you use that for football?). Due to strength (weakness?) of schedule they will have to get some help from the BCS to make it to the championship game.
HONORABLE MENTION
1. Clemson Tigers (3 AP - 4 USA - 3 ESPN)
Clemson has had one of the most potent offensive attacks in college football the past couple years. This year is no different. The only difference is, this year they actually have a defense. In 2011 opponents averaged 27.5 points against Clemson during the regular season. It got worse when West Virginia put up a record setting 70 points against the Tigers in the Orange Bowl. In 2012 opponents were still averaging 25 points per game, although the Tigers averaged 43.1 points per game in the regular season. This season Clemson is still averaging 44.2 points per game, but opponents are only averaging 16.6. With the exception of #5 Georgia in the season opener, no opponent has put up more than 14 points on Clemson all year. Most people think Clemson is for real this year, but then again, most people thought Clemson was for real in 2011 when they started the season 8-0, then finished losing three out of their last four games. Most analysts had the Tigers on their boards again in 2012, but Clemson ended up losing in week four against a #6 FSU team. They didn't lose again in 2012 until the South Carolina Gamecocks beat them the last game of the season. "Pulling a Clemson" has become a popular statement among college football insiders. It means you have enough talent to win it all, then late in the season you lose to someone you should easily beat. In my opinion, it should be called "Pulling an Oregon" as of late.
WHO I THINK WILL WIN IT ALL
Who do I think will win it all? Well, it's not an SEC, PAC-12, ACC, or Big-10 team. They are from the Big-12. My pick for the 2013 National Championship is the Baylor Bears defeating the Clemson Tigers.
Baylor Bears (15 AP - 15 USA - 14 ESPN)
Before you call me crazy, hear me out. Right now Baylor is #1 in the nation in passing yards and points scored. They are also #2 in the nation in rushing yards and up until last week were #2 in points against. They are currently averaging 781.6 offensive (not including defense and special teams) yards per game and 70.5 points a game! I have had Baylor picked for two or three weeks now, but I wanted to see how they did against West Virginia before I went public. Baylor went H.A.M. on WVU, putting up 56 points to WVU's 14 in the first half! Then the Bears put it in cruise control, only scoring 17 to West Virginia's 28 in the second half. There are other things (besides scoring touchdowns every few seconds, and not letting many through!) that make Baylor a dark horse for the National Championship. Scheduling, media attention, and other teams losing are the main three.
Scheduling
If you are griping that Baylor has not played anyone of real talent yet, you would be partially correct. West Virginia is a talented team that does not always show up when they should. Besides WVU, Baylor has played virtually no one. However, they proved last week that they could not only play with better competition, but completely destroy them. They will have to prove that again on the road against Kansas State this weekend, and I think the Bears will do more than rise to the challenge. After K-State Baylor has two more "cupcakes" before hitting a difficult second half of their season. #12 Oklahoma, #20 Texas Tech, and #22 Oklahoma State will be a rough stretch, but two out of the three are at home. They finish the season up traveling to TCU and playing Texas at home. Both TCU and Texas are having off years, but they are no one to sleep on, especially if you are undefeated going into your last few season games.
Media Attention
Even though Baylor has been putting up unbelievable passing, rushing, and scoring numbers, the media hasn't really paid them much attention. And why should they, when the top 15 is littered with so many storied legends right now: #1 Alabama, #3 Clemson, #4 Ohio State, #5 Stanford, #6 Florida State, #7 Georgia, #9 Texas A&M, #10 LSU, #12 Oklahoma, #13 Miami (FL). Why would anyone care about Baylor with all these giants around fighting for dominance? While the others teams are fighting, Baylor will be winning. Baylor most likely won't garnish any national attention until they play Oklahoma on November 7th. If they're undefeated going into the Oklahoma State game on November 23rd, I think the national spotlight will then turn on them. The national championship talks won't start until the TCU game the following week. Then they still have to get through Texas of course. The road to the National Championship isn't easy, and a few things will have fall in place for me to be right about Baylor.
Other Teams That Have to Lose
Alabama obviously will have to lose. How will that happen? The answer is to be decided, however I think Alabama will lose. Alabama has shown that their offense still is not up to BCS standard. Bama is currently not even close to the top 25 in the main three offensive categories (#62 passing yards, #68 rushing yards, #36 points scored). Bama could only muster a measly 14 offensive points against Virginia Tech. In fact the only "real" game the Tide's offense was rolling for so far was against Texas A&M. The thing Bama does have going for them, however, is a reasonable schedule. They only have one ranked team (#10 LSU) left on the schedule. Besides the Tigers, the Volunteers of Tennessee or the Tigers of Auburn might surprise Alabama, but if not, their loss will have to come to Georgia, South Carolina, or Florida in the SEC championship game. The later the better to keep them out of the BCS title game. Side note: I think if Alabama played Oregon, Clemson, Georgia, and maybe a few others TODAY, I think Bama would lose. Give Nick Saban four weeks to prepare for a National Championship and that would probably be another story.
Oregon will also have to lose. Based on Oregon's history, it's not really a question of "if they will lose", but more "when will they lose". My prediction would be somewhere during the hellish stretch of #16 Washington, Washington St., #11 UCLA, #5 Stanford, Utah, Arizona, and Oregon St. Although Utah is a push over, none of the other teams in that list are, and I don't see the Ducks making it out uncooked. Their first loss could come as early as this Saturday, when they go on the road against a very strong Washington team. Even if they make it out of the regular season alive, there is a very good chance they will have to face off against UCLA or Stanford again in the PAC-12 Championship. I give Oregon a very low chance of finishing the season undefeated.
Ohio State may not have to lose just based on their powder puff schedule, but it would help. Since they already squeaked by two out of the three average teams on their schedule, let's hope that Michigan can send Urban Meyer his first loss as a Buckeye. If not, hopefully Nebraska or Wisconsin round #2 can take out Ohio State in the Big-10 championship.
I don't think Clemson will lose until the National Championship game. I believe they will achieve their first #1 ranking since 1981, and then "pull a Clemson" when it matters most.
Well there you have it folks, if you enjoyed this read (I know it was long, but hopefully informative) and want to comment (or flame) me, you can do it in the comment section or LIKE ME ON FACEBOOK! Remember, I'm a family / event photographer so please keep all comments clean!
Until next time......
- Jarvis Creative
*All stats were gathered from ESPN College Football.
